What is a Good Bet? What is a Bad Bet?

I was out on the golf course recently with a friend of mine when judi bola I spotted a Gila Woodpecker up in a tree (yes, my golf ball is usually around the trees). I said to my friend, “Hey look there’s a Gila Woodpecker”. My friend being contrary as usual said, “No it’s not! You don’t know anything about birds”. Well a conversation ensued and ultimately a wager was made.

When we got home I broke out the bird book (we keep a bird book and reptile book on our back porch because we have lots of visitors to our backyard, and I don’t mean the human kind). Anyway, we compared the picture I took on the golf course with the one in the book and it was in fact a Gila Woodpecker.

Now, my friend was right, I don’t know much about birds. However, there is a Gila Woodpecker that frequents my backyard (he likes the hummingbird feeder), so I was familiar with that particular bird. When I saw that woodpecker in the tree I recognized it, because I had seen one like it on more than one occasion and had identified it in my bird book. Therefore, I contend that I made a good bet, based on personal knowledge.

The next question is did my friend make a good bet? Well, I contend he did as well, because he knew I wasn’t a bird expert and while I don’t know how many species of birds there are, in this bet, he had every other bird in the world (or at least every bird in our region of the country). In other words, let’s say, for sake of conversation there are a thousand species of birds in our region. He had the other nine hundred and ninety-nine, I only had one. So, in an even money wager, the odds were actually in his favor.

What does all this mean to you? Well, I have read some interesting articles, blogs and forum discussions of late saying this bet and that bet are not good bets, with little or no substantiation, so I am going to break down two of those bets for you and let you figure out whether they are good bets or bad bets.

According to most experts it is generally acknowledged that the “field bet” in craps is a bad bet, and the “place bet” in the same game is a good bet. Let’s take a look at both.With my handy camera phone (I love today’s technology) I took a picture of the feathered critter in question.

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